Global fund managers warn of accelerating risk of recession in key survey

The world’s most powerful fund managers increasingly fear a recession will be triggered by Donald Trump’s alarming new era of trade barriers.

Bank of America’s monthly Global Fund Manager Survey for April shows a net 42% of respondents now expect a recession.

That is the most since June 2023 and the 4th highest level in the past 20 years of the survey.

It also represents a remarkable flip from the previous month when a net 52% said a recession was unlikely.

Overall it was the 5th most bearish survey in the past 25 years with a record number of global investors planning to to cut their exposure to US stocks.

A net 82% of respondents say the global economy to set to weaken, a 30-year high.

There was some good news for Britain with fund managers taking a more favourable view of UK equities compared with the long-term average in the current volatile markets.

It showed that, in historical terms, investors are overweight in utilities, bonds, staples and UK stocks, and are underweight tech, energy, industrials & US stocks.

The survey came as China has warned of the impact of Trump tariff shocks even as its economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter year-on-year

The numbers were better than forecasts but covered a period before US tariffs on Chinese-made goods jumped from 10% to 145% .

China's leader Xi Jinping is on a charm offensive tour of south east Asia, visiting Malaysia today, and Cambodia next.

He left Vietnam yesterday, where he signed a slate of agreements and told his counterpart To Lam to "jointly oppose unilateral bullying".

South East Asian countries face some of the highest US tariffs, including 46% for Vietnam and 49% for Cambodia - before a 90-day pause was issued last week.