Kitchen Ladder

Euro 2024 is unfolding like a classic horse race. First, you've got your speed horses jumping out front to set the pace -- the underdog countries throwing haymakers and having a blast, the absurd shots of crowds singing in the streets en masse, the stories of 50,000 fans from Country A filling this stadium and another 40,000 from Country B filling that one. These stories have added a layer of absolute delight that few major tournaments have been able to match.

The stretch run now approaches, however. A lot of the underdogs have begun to bow out, and the heavyweights are jostling each other and jockeying for position. Virtually all of this tournament's favorites have advanced to the knockout rounds -- two-thirds of the 24 teams do, after all -- and while they haven't all looked amazing just yet, it's the stretch run that matters.

With the round of 16 beginning on Saturday, let's look at everyone who has qualified thus far and break down why they will win the Euros -- or won't. Eleven teams have qualified as of Tuesday evening, and we'll know the five other teams after Wednesday's action.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 4.0% (No. 9 favorite) How they got here: Lost to France 0-1, defeated Poland 3-1, defeated Netherlands 3-2 Round-of-16 opponent: Group F runner-up

Why they will win it all: It's Ralf's moment. Ralf Rangnick turned down the Bayern Munich job a few weeks ago, at least in part because he really wanted to coach this Austria team in this tournament. It's not hard to see why. Rangnick has the players he needs to craft a Rangnick identity -- all the things that have gone into the Red Bull identity, with the pressure, counterpressure and intensity.

Translation: This team is miserable to play against. Just no fun. They wore down both Poland and the Netherlands, and only outstanding individual play from France's back line gave them a solid win. They're allowing only 9.0 passes per defensive action (only Germany allows fewer), and only Portugal is making more ball recoveries per match. They sucked some strong possession teams into playing chaotic, direct ball, and that's the style of match they want. They rank third in xG per shot (0.18), they're putting 57% of shots on target (first), and only Germany and Portugal are averaging more goals. Eight different players have produced either a goal or assist.

Is this a style you can win four more games with? Especially since it's asking a lot of older players like 30-year old Marcel Sabitzer (who's played all 270 minutes) and 35-year old Marko Arnautovic? It's hard to say yes, but Austria has the strongest identity in this tournament and just won a dynamite group because of it.

Why they won't: Opponents are creating great chances too. It's great that they rank third in xG per shot, but they also rank 24th in xG allowed per shot; they're attempting more total shots too. That's putting all sorts of pressure on goalkeeper Patrick Pentz and a back line that doesn't have nearly as much major-club talent as the front line.

Strong identity or no, Austria's certainly been kissed by the xG gods thus far. They have scored six goals (including a Netherlands own goal) from shots worth 3.9 xG, and they've allowed just four goals from shots worth 5.4. Their pressure can force mistakes against anyone, but no one stays on the good side of the gods forever.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 1.6% (No. 11 favorite) How they got here: Tied Slovenia 1-1, tied England 1-1, tied Serbia 0-0 Round-of-16 opponent: Germany

Why they will win it all: They give opponents nothing. Group C wasn't the most thrilling group in the tournament, with just seven total goals in six matches -- one 1-0 finish, three 1-1s and two nil-nils on the final match day. You can blame conservatism for that to some degree (this was England's group, after all), but in Denmark's case, they were happy to sacrifice goals to create a disaster-free zone. They ranked sixth in total shots allowed (9.3 per match) and third in xG allowed per shot (0.09); opponents only created two shots worth greater than 0.3 xG (fourth), in part because opponents couldn't create many high turnovers (26.7 per match, third).

Now, between England, Slovenia and Slovakia, Denmark didn't exactly face any hyper-aggressive pressing teams. But Denmark's back line is extremely battle-tested, with goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel (now with Anderlecht) protected by center-backs Joachim Andersen (Crystal Palace), Andreas Christensen (Barcelona) and Jannik Vestergaard (Leicester City). Structure and experience earned them second in a physical group, and it could make life awfully hard for Germany in the next round too.

Why they won't: They also take nothing. In the 17th minute of their opening match with Slovenia, Christian Eriksen scored on a beautiful throw-in routine, assisted by Jonas Wind. The shot was worth 0.51 xG, and Eriksen finished it beautifully. Everything about it was well-executed.

Over the next 253 minutes, Denmark created just four more shots worth even 0.2 xG. Morten Hjulmand's long-range screamer against England earned them a valuable draw and point, but that was all they got from three matches. They finished the group stage ranked 21st in xG per shot (0.11) and 23rd in goals per possession (0.01). And with a mostly veteran squad, they haven't shown too much of the directness that might be required to counterattack against Germany or other teams they'll face moving forward. Teams have won tournaments before with random, individual moments of brilliance instead of sustained attacks, but Denmark really need to make things easier on themselves.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 18.5% (No. 1 favorite) How they got here: Defeated Serbia 1-0, tied Denmark 1-1, tied Slovenia 0-0 Round-of-16 opponent: Third-place Group D/E

Why they will win it all: Extreme defensive organization. If you've watched any of England's matches, you know they've been rather stolid. Dull. Unspectacular. But while we'll get to their problems in attack, it's also worth a reminder that they've given opponents almost nothing for three matches. Opponents have attempted only 26 shots worth just 1.1 total xG. The only goal they allowed was Morten Hjulmand's brilliant, 31-meter cannon shot (xG: 0.02). Fullbacks Kieran Trippier (71.4%) and Kyle Walker (66.7%) have each won at least two-thirds of their duels, and center-back John Stones is at 63.6%. They've won most of their aerial attempts too.

Three years ago, England won their Euro 2020 group while scoring two goals. They didn't open things up until they had to, and it worked -- they came within a penalty shootout of winning the entire tournament. Playing attractive football isn't guaranteed to win you tournaments, but never ever allowing opponents a good shot might, and England really isn't far off of the pace it set the last time around.

Why they won't: Absolutely dreadful attack. Harry Kane scored 44 goals in all competitions for Bayern Munich this season. Phil Foden had 27 with 12 assists for Manchester City. Jude Bellingham scored 23 with 13 assists for Real Madrid. Bukayo Saka had 20 and 14 for Arsenal.

On paper, England has the best attacking talent in this tournament, and only France comes particularly close. No matter what kind of compatibility issues Bellingham and Foden have (they tend to want to occupy extremely similar areas), no matter how much England's lack of width on the left has been, no matter how conservative manager Gareth Southgate's tactics are (especially in the group stage of a major tournament), it boggles the mind that England scored twice in three matches and ranked 15th in shots per possession (0.11) and 22nd in xG per shot. They've created one shot worth more than 0.3 xG in three matches (Kane's short miss late in the first half against Slovenia).

Again, this is sort of following the script as far as Southgate teams go. And with France slipping up and landing in the top half of the bracket, England is honestly sitting pretty, looking at facing a third-place team in the round of 16 and either Switzerland or Italy in the quarterfinals. This is all set up beautifully for them. If they can score.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 18.5% (No. 1 favorite) How they got here: Defeated Austria 1-0, tied Netherlands 0-0, tied Poland 1-1 Round-of-16 opponent: Group E runner-up

Why they will win it all: They have the numbers and the talent. If we ignore the talent for a minute and just focus on the underlying stats, everything's fine with Didier Deschamps' squad. They've created shots worth 2.0 xG per match (only Portugal has averaged more), and they rank sixth in xG allowed. They're attempting far more shots than their opponents, they're completing 89% of their passes (third), and they're averaging 211.7 touches per match in the attacking third (third). They're dominating in a lot of the ways you think the most talented team in the field is supposed to dominate. And with 21 of 26 players currently playing for Champions League teams, this is indeed an absurdly talented squad.

That hasn't created results yet. After a strong win over Austria, they managed just draws with Netherlands (played without Kylian Mbappé) and Poland, with Robert Lewandowski's late penalty costing France first place in the group and sending them to the loaded top half of the bracket. But this team is creating great chances, allowing almost none, dominating the ball, and doing everything you need to see them do. Except score, at least.

Why they won't: They can't score. Whatever jinx was afflicting PSG in the Champions League semifinals against Borussia Dortmund -- Les Parisiens attempted 44 shots worth 4.95 xG over two legs but scored zero goals -- has carried over to a national team carrying a quintet of PSG players.

In three matches, France turned 48 shots worth 5.9 xG into just two goals, one of which was an own goal scored by Austria's Max Wober. Mbappé scored on a penalty and has otherwise gone 0-for-1.2 xG. Antoine Griezmann (eight shots, 1.8 xG, zero goals) has played like a curse was put on him. Ousmane Dembélé has created almost nothing and scored nothing. Randal Kolo Muani and Kingsley Coman have barely seen the pitch and created nothing when they did.

If this curse lifts, France is fine. But damn. When a team misses this many great chances, you have to worry about confidence levels. And curses.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 14.6% (No. 4 favorite) How they got here: Defeated Scotland 5-1, defeated Hungary 2-0, tied Switzerland 1-1 Round-of-16 opponent: Denmark

Why they will win it all: A relentless attacking identity. This is the Germany we've long since come to expect at major tournaments. They've got brilliant attacking talent -- 10 different players have recorded at least one goal or assist in three matches, including incredible 21-year olds Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz and seasoned vets Ilkay Gündogan, Niclas Füllkrug and Thomas Müller -- and coach Julian Nagelsmann knows how to use it.

Germany currently rank first in the tournament in shots per possession (0.18), first in possession rate (68.8%), first in pass completion rate (92.4%) and first in touches in the attacking third (270.7). The other part of the typical German soccer identity is counter-pressing; they're good at that too. They start their possessions highest up the pitch (39.7 meters from their goal on average), and their opponents start theirs the furthest back (28.2). They allow just 8.8 passes per defensive action (second-lowest behind Austria, the team coached by legendary counter-presser Ralf Rangnick), and they have already scored five goals from possessions beginning with a high turnover. Crafting an identity with a major national team in a major tournament is hard -- just ask England -- but they have an overwhelming identity.

Why they won't: Ghosts of old glitches. When things have gone wrong for Germany at recent tournaments, they've followed a pretty similar theme: Total control followed by sudden and extreme breakdowns. At the 2022 World Cup, they attempted more shots than anyone else in the group stage and scored plenty of goals, but the shots opponents got were of high quality, often in counterattacking or sudden-attacking situations. They were eliminated primarily because of two Japan goals in nine minutes, both of which stemmed from sudden attacks and, seemingly, poor attention spans. And in Qatar they ranked 26th out of 32 teams in allowing 0.17 xG per opponents' shot.

In the Euro group stage, they allowed the fewest shots per match (5.3), but Hungary forced a number of strong Manuel Neuer saves and attempted three shots worth from within seven meters. And while Switzerland attempted only four total shots, one of them was Dan Ndoye's relatively high-percentage goal, scored from five meters after a sloppy turnover. If not for Füllkrug's heroic late equalizer, that one glitch would have cost them the top spot in the group. Further glitches will likely be punished even more thoroughly.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 4.4% (No. T-6 favorite) How they got here: Defeated Albania 2-1, lost to Spain 1-0, tied Croatia 1-1 Round-of-16 opponent: Group C runner-up

Why they will win it all: Ball control basics. Denmark didn't qualify for the knockout rounds in 2020 until they scored a couple of late goals against Russia; they then made a delightful run to the semifinals. Portugal didn't actually win a match in regulation at Euro 2016 until the semifinals; they won the whole thing. Greece only reached the knockouts of Euro 2004 because of a slight tie-breaker advantage, but they then rode three 1-0 wins to a shocking title.

The point of the group stage is to simply advance. You don't get bonus points for looking awesome. Italy certainly hasn't looked awesome. They glitched out at the start of the Albania match and gave up a goal after 23 seconds. They were dominated by Spain. They dominated long stretches of the match against Croatia but fell behind and looked like they might get eliminated until the last, dramatic kick of the game.

The defending champs haven't looked particularly likely to repeat, but they do still have the makings of a team that can control the ball and frustrate opponents. They're third in touches (759.7 per match) and pass attempts (605.7). They have won 56% of all duels, second behind only France. Left winger Lorenzo Pellegrini has been brilliant, winning 59% of duels (you don't see many attackers over 50%), while defenders Alessandro Bastoni (72%) and Giovanni Di Lorenzo (67%) have been impenetrable.

Their center-backs, Bastoni and Riccardo Calafiori, the hero against Croatia, have been calm and steady in buildup play. At the very least, this doesn't look like a team likely to make a devastating mistake and hand an opponent the victory. That's a large part of the battle in the nervy matches to come.

Why they won't: The final move is lacking. They scored three goals in the group stage. They rank 19th out of 24 teams in xG created (0.9 per match). They average just 0.09 shots per possession (22nd), and they're putting just 27% of their shots on target (21st). They attempted just one shot worth more than 0.3 xG in three matches, and their opponents attempted seven. It's good that they don't hand their opponents mistakes, but they don't create anything easy for themselves, either.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 5.3% (No. T-6 favorite) How they got here: Defeated Poland 2-1, tied France 0-0, lost to Austria 2-3 Round-of-16 opponent: TBD

Why they will win it all: They're not bad at anything. In a group that featured France and a peaking Austria, Ronald Koeman's Oranje very much held their own, drawing with France and losing to Austria in part because of a wacky own goal. Statistically, they are basically in the middle at just about everything. Shots per possession? Fourth in attack, 16th in defense. Per shot xG averages? 18th in attack, 11th in defense. Their possession game has been decent (11th in possession, 10th in pass completion rate). They were 14th in high turnovers forced and 12th in high turnovers suffered. They broke even, and per xG they were unlucky to lose to Austria.

Was that paragraph inspiring in any way? Not really. But Netherlands' weak link is stronger than a lot of the teams in the round of 16. They've got Virgil van Dijk at the back, and attackers like Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo and super-sub Wout Weghorst have looked good up front. This could all be worse despite a disappointing third-place finish in Group D.

Why they won't: They're not better than others at anything, either. You probably saw that one coming. At the very least, Germany, Portugal, England, Spain and France have a better possession game. Belgium, France, Germany and Austria press better. Spain, France and plenty of others create and prevent big shots better. (This is the particularly damning one. They've created just two shots worth more than 0.3 xG in three matches, and against France and Poland they created only two worth more than 0.2.)

The Netherlands can beat any individual team remaining, but they won't have any specific strengths to lean on.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 12.0% (No. 5 favorite) How they got here: Defeated Czechia 2-1, defeated Turkey 3-0, play Georgia Wednesday Round-of-16 opponent: Third-place team from Group A/B/C

Why they will win it all: Extreme creativity. Portugal boast some of the most creative players in Europe (Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, Rafael Leão, João Cancelo), guys who are capable of creating brilliant ball progression and attacking threats without overcommitting to attack. Portugal clinched advancement to the knockouts in just two matches, beating Czechia late (two goals in the final 25 minutes) and Turkey early (two goals in the first 30). In those two matches, they averaged 176.5 combined progressive carries and passes and 229 touches in attacking third. Those are huge numbers; only Germany averaged more in either category.

Combine this with ultra-sturdy play from central defenders Rúben Dias and the ageless Pepe in the back, and you've got a contender playing like a contender.

Why they won't: All these creatives cater to Cristiano Ronaldo too much. Ronaldo remains one of the best in the world at seeking scoring opportunities in the box. And since scoring is a rather important piece of winning, that's a plus. But if you play him, you have to build your entire attack around him, both because he's not the most tactically complex player in the world and because, as Ryan O'Hanlon recently noted, he doesn't do anything else. Like an NFL star receiver, he gets openly frustrated when he's not touching the ball enough, and despite all of the creative and nearly interchangeable attacking pieces around him, these players spent much of the Czechia match firing simple lobs at Ronaldo's head. It didn't work.

It hasn't cost them yet, obviously. It might not. But while Portugal ended up generating a solid 1.85 xG from 19 shots against Czechia, (a) 0.56 of that came on a Ronaldo shot that would have been ruled offside had he scored, and (b) 0.84 of it came after Czechia scored in the 62nd minute, and Portugal had no choice but to open things up. Turkey made enough crippling errors that Portugal was comfortable quickly in that one. But the ball isn't as free-flowing as it should be in the attacking third. That could prove costly at some point.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 0.4% How they got here: Tied Denmark 1-1, tied Serbia 1-1, tied England 0-0 Round-of-16 opponent: TBD

Why they will win it all: Jan Oblak is standing on his head. Oblak, 31, hasn't been quite as dominant at the club level over the last couple of years with Atletico Madrid, but he has brought his A-game in Germany. Opponents have placed shots worth 4.3 xG on his goal; he has allowed only two of them into the net.

He's got a save percentage of 75.0%, he's punching away crosses, he's playing as big as Slovenia needed him to. And Slovenia will have a chance in any remaining match as long as he's doing that. Plus, exciting young forward Benjamin Sesko has apparently saved any heroics he's capable of for the knockout rounds! Good thinking!

Why they won't: The counterattacks aren't creating anything. Slovenia has seen almost none of the ball (32.8% possession and the fewest touches per match), which can work if you create quality chances from counters. But they're also only 16th in xG per shot, with Zan Karnicnik scoring on a lovely chance against Serbia and almost no other good opportunities coming together. Erik Janza's late, 25-meter strike earned a point against Denmark, but there's just not much to get excited about here, especially with opponents proving quite capable of limiting Sesko's opportunities. The thrilling young RB Leipzig forward has managed just five shots in 240 minutes. Maybe my joke above was right -- maybe his breakout performance is coming. But if it's not, this run ends soon.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 15.1% (No. 2 favorite) How they got here: Defeated Croatia 3-0, defeated Italy 1-0, defeated Albania 1-0 Round-of-16 opponent: Third-place team from Group D/E/F

Why they will win it all: Possession with menace. Spain always have an abundance of ball-control wizards in midfield and defense, guys who can dictate the tempo of the game and complete a million tiny passes back and forth. And despite manager Luis de la Fuente rotating the squad considerably through three group-stage matches, all the relevant wizards have been sharp. They're completing 89% of their passes (fifth overall), and they're second in progressive carries and fourth in progressive passes.

What Spain lack sometimes are (a) guys who can stretch the pitch vertically and aggressively, and (b) finishing. The latter might still be an issue; Spain scored three goals from shots worth just 2.0 xG against Croatia but scored only twice from shots worth 3.5 xG in the next two matches, 1-0 wins that should have had more demonstrative score lines. But center-forward Álvaro Morata has been sharp in the finishing department, scoring six goals from shots worth 4.4 xG over the last year; that's something.

They have maybe never been more blessed in the "stretch the pitch" department, however.

Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams have been incredible thus far. Typically, center-backs have the most progressive carries on a team, but while Aymeric Laporte has indeed led the way with 30 progressive carries, Yamal almost matched him with 28. Williams had 19 in two matches. They have attempted 34 of the team's 75 1v1s in attack. Williams was on the receiving end of 22 of Spain's 104 progressive passes in the first two games, and Spain's ability to completely switch the focus of the defense with long diagonal passes to Yamal has been a game-changer.

Spain has looked like the most dangerous team in the field thus far. That doesn't mean anything if you don't show up for the knockout rounds, but it's a great first step.

Why they won't: I just don't trust the defense. Granted, the next goal they allow in this tournament will be the first. But there's been good fortune behind that. Spain rank just eighth in xG allowed (1.0 per match), eighth in xG allowed per shot (0.13) and ninth in opponents' shots per possession (0.10). For all the danger they've threatened in attack, they've gotten by with 1-0 wins in each of their last two matches, and the good defensive fortune might not last.

Title odds, per ESPN BET: 2.1% (No. 10 favorite) How they got here: Defeated Hungary 3-1, tied Scotland 1-1, tied Germany 1-1 Round-of-16 opponent: Italy

Why they will win it all: Brains and maturity. This is just a smart, seasoned and well-managed squad. Eight Swiss players have played in at least 240 of 270 minutes thus far, and they're all between 27 and 35 years old. That includes one of the steadiest players in the sport over the last year, midfielder Granit Xhaka. After leading Bayer Leverkusen to historic heights during the club season, he has followed that up by leading this team in touches, passes, progressive passes, shots on goal and chances created at the Euros.

Xhaka and center-backs Manuel Akanji (Manchester City) and Fabian Schär (Newcastle) have given manager Muray Yakin a safe tactical base from which to build, and the team's selective pressing has been brilliant. They were able to knock Germany out of their attacking rhythm for about 60 minutes on Sunday, and they were able to force countless mistakes against a nervous Hungary in the opener. They have just enough talent and confidence to beat any single remaining team in this tournament. If you can do that, you can make a run.

Why they won't: Not enough juice in attack. For all of the experience and major-club talent Switzerland boast, almost none of it comes at forward, where Yakin has alternated between Bologna's Dan Ndoye, Ludogorets Razgrad's Kwadwo Duah, Augsburg's Ruben Vargas and Monaco's Breel Embolo. Ndoye, Duah and Embolo have all scored singularly excellent goals, but Switzerland is averaging just 10.0 shots per match (21st out of 24 teams) and 0.10 shots per possession (18th).

They're good shots (sixth in xG per shot, second in on-target rate), but against the best team they faced, Germany, they managed only four attempts all match. Game state played a role in that (they led for more than an hour), but Germany was eventually able to overwhelm the Swiss defense, and other good teams probably will too if their overall attacking output doesn't improve.