Who could be the next Pope after Francis? All the cardinals in the running for the Papacy

There’s an old turn of phrase in Rome: “after a fat Pope, a thin pope”. In other words, even though Pope Francis packed the College of Cardinals with his own appointees, including a resounding majority of those who will elect him (about 80 per cent), there is no guarantee that the next pope will be a Francis Mini-Me. Francis, after all, was almost the opposite in style and substance from his predecessor, the shy, conservative intellectual, Benedict XV, and the cardinals who elected him in 2013 were mostly appointed by his conservative predecessors. So if you’re a betting person eyeing up the papabile cardinals, or likely candidates, I’d hedge those bets.

Having said which, it’s worth bearing in mind that the chances of a complete unknown surfacing – as in Conclave, the book and film, or the fabulous novel, Frederick Rolfe’s Hadrian VII – are slim.

John Allen, the respected Catholic Herald and Crux Vatican watcher, has observed that “over the last ten conclaves, whoever was considered the front-runner won four times: Leo XIII in 1903, Pius XII in 1939, Paul VI in 1963 and Benedict XVI in 2005. On four other occasions, what might be termed a “B list” candidate, meaning someone in the mix but not considered the favourite, carried the day: Benedict XV in 1914, Pius XI in 1922, John Paul I in 1978 and Francis in 2013. Only twice did a genuine surprise emerge: John XXIII in 1958, and John Paul II in 1978.”

So, who are the frontrunners? One option is to look up the interesting website, The College of Cardinals Report” – Cardinalium Collegii Recensio. It’s compiled by two conservative Vatican experts, so has a slant favouring candidates who are less liberal than Francis, but is a fascinating summary of the candidates in the running.

The following are worth watching:

Probably the favourite and an Italian, after a succession of non-Italian popes. Zuppi, 65, has a reputation as an accessible bike riding bishop in his diocese of Bologna and has steered a moderate line between liberals and conservatives on Catholic culture war issues. He’s been Francis’ delegate to Ukraine. He’s closely associated with the Sant’Egidio community, which works with migrants and the homeless – so in that sense, not unlike Francis.

A Filipino, 67, who would be the first Asian pope if elected. He’s a former archbishop of Manila, goes by the nickname Chito, and presided over a mega-mass of six million for Pope Francis in the Philippines. He is notably liberal on some of the neuralgic issues, and has spoken positively about married clergy, but his previously bright star waned after Francis dismissed the entire board of the charity Caritas in 2022, including him as chairman, after an investigation into its affairs. He was criticised by Rodrigo Duterte when he was president of the Philippines.

This prelate from Guinea, aged 79, is many conservatives’ fantasy candidate. A critic of Francis, he is a former head of the Congregation for Divine Worship, not afraid to speak his mind and a traditionalist on practically every issue from liturgy to doctrine. He would be the first black African pope in modern times and would, as such, be tricky for liberals to criticise, though they would be apoplectic if he were elected.

He is Italian, but also the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, a tricky job right now, which he has carried out with diplomacy and intelligence. Pizzaballa, 60, has been critical of the actions of disruptive Jewish settler groups in Jerusalem and of the actions of Israeli forces during the present conflict, but he has also been categoric in his condemnation of Hamas atrocities. Given his job, he doesn’t sound off about the usual issues,but is broadly a traditionalist

The 72-year-old is serving as Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and the Primate of Hungary. He too is a conservative favourite, having been critical of Francis’ apparent liberalisation of the rules about divorced and remarried people receiving communion. He’s also expressed doubts about the wisdom of an open-door policy to migrants, comparing this with collusion in human trafficking. In short, he is a very different kettle of fish to Francis, but not combatively so.

He’s the Vatican’s Secretary of State, so its foreign minister, and was effectively Francis’ deputy. Parolin, 70, is a diplomat so handicapped by a want of pastoral experience; he doesn’t have what Francis called “the smell of the sheep” about him. Conservatives really hate him because of his role in striking an agreement with Beijing which has effectively given the Chinese Communist Party rights over the appointment of bishops in China to the disadvantage of the persecuted Chinese underground church

Only kidding. The Argentine, 62, was appointed Prefect of the Dicastery of the Doctrine of the Faith by Francis in 2023. But he is handicapped by his reputation as the author of a book of religious-erotic reflections ( true) and by the sheer confusion created by the document he issued on Francis’ behalf, Fiducia Supplicans, which authorised the blessing of those in “irregular relationships” including the divorced and remarried and gay couples. Very, very divisive.

My own personal favourite, being a) very clever, b) very charming, c) handsome and d) an English Dominican. Radcliffe, 65, has however the reputation of a radical, though there’s profound orthodoxy underlying all that. On the downside, he is not in the best of health, would hate to be pope and is a very new cardinal. I still think he’d be fabulous.

The Netherlands may be one of the most secularised countries in Europe, but its Primate, the Cardinal Archbishop of Utrecht has put up a sturdy battle against the collapse of faith on his home turf. His father was Protestant, his mother Catholic. He is a qualified doctor and an expert on medical ethics. Eijk, 71, is robustly traditionalist, devout  (quelle surprise!) and down to earth.

Another plausible Asian candidate from a much-tried region, which has been afflicted by earthquakes on top of civil war. Bo, 76, has been adroit in handling the complexities of the Myanmar coup. A Francis appointment, he symbolised the late pope’s emphasis on bringing the peripheries of the church to centre stage. Plus there’s no forgetting his name: Bo.