Do Rough Surfaces Absorb Heat

The knockout bracket at Euro 2024 is starting to take shape with the final round of matches almost over. 

How can every team book their place? Who has serious work to do? We run through all six groups and set out the permutations. 

The top two teams in each group go through to the round of 16, along with the four best runners-up. The third-placed scenarios can be found at the bottom of the article. 

This article will be updated after each group stage fixture. 

TIEBREAKERS: 

If teams are equal on points, they will be separated by the following criteria:

1. Head-to-head points 2. Head-to-head goal difference 3. Head-to-head goals scored

If three teams are level on points, a mini-league is created only involving the results of the matches between the teams in question.

4. If after applying stages 1-3 some teams are still level, it is reapplied just to those teams. For instance, England, Slovenia and Serbia are level on points; after applying 1-3, England are first but Slovenia and Serbia cannot be separated in the three-team mini-league. The direct head-to-head between Slovenia and Serbia would determine second place.     

If teams still cannot be separated, the following are applied: 

5. Group goal difference 6. Group goals scored 7. Penalty shootout, if the two teams are playing each other on the final matchday 8. If they don't play each other, lower disciplinary points (1 point yellow, 3 points red via two yellows, 3 points direct red, 4 points yellow followed by direct red)  9. European qualifiers overall ranking, unless Germany are involved. If Germany are involved, then it would be a random drawing of lots.

Results: 

Germany 5-1 Scotland Hungary 1-3 Switzerland Germany 2-0 Hungary Scotland 1-1 Switzerland Switzerland 1-1 Germany Scotland 0-1 Hungary

Germany snatched back top spot in the group by scoring a 92nd-minute equaliser against Switzerland, dropping them to second.

Hungary left it even later to get a victory in their game against Scotland, finding a winning goal in the last of 10 minutes of added time. That moved Hungary up to third on three points, though with goal difference of -3. It's in the balance whether that will be enough to go through -- but have a chance.

Results:

Spain 3-0 Croatia  Italy 2-1 Albania Croatia 2-2 Albania Spain 1-0 Italy Albania 0-1 Spain Croatia 1-1 Italy

Mattia Zaccagni scored in the eighth minute of stoppage time to send Italy automatically through to the round of 16, earning a 1-1 draw with Croatia. Results in other groups meant Zaccagni's goal eliminated Croatia, as they could not be one of the best third-placed teams. 

Spain, who had already sealed top spot, wrapped things up with a 1-0 win over Albania, who finished bottom. 

Results:

Slovenia 1-1 Denmark Serbia 0-1 England Slovenia 1-1 Serbia Denmark 1-1 England England 0-0 Slovenia Denmark 0-0 Serbia

Without doubt the most uninspiring group at Euro 2024. England claimed top spot with a 0-0 draw against Slovenia, while Serbia couldn't get the win they needed against Denmark: Again 0-0.

Slovenia are guaranteed to be a best third-placed team. 

Denmark and Slovenia had identical records, with the Danes finishing second on six yellow cards to Slovenia's seven. 

Results: 

Poland 1-2 Netherlands  Austria 0-1 France Poland 1-3 Austria Netherlands 0-0 France France 1-1 Poland Netherlands 2-3 Austria

Austria claimed a stunning win over Netherlands, which coupled with France's surprise draw against Poland meant it was Austria who topped the group. 

Netherlands will pay the price for failing to capitalise on France's slip with a trickier knockout route as a best third-placed team. 

Results:

Romania 3-0 Ukraine  Belgium 0-1 Slovakia Slovakia 1-2 Ukraine Belgium 2-0 Romania

Remaining fixtures:

June 26 Ukraine vs. Belgium  Slovakia vs. Romania

ROMANIA: 

Will qualify as long as they do not lose to Slovakia by 4+ goals, if in third place.

Win Guaranteed to qualify, which will be as group winners if Ukraine win/draw. If Belgium win, Romania finish second on head to head. 

Draw If Slovakia vs. Romania is a draw, both teams are guaranteed to go through.

If there is a winner between Belgium and Ukraine, Romania finish second on goal difference over Slovakia.

If the two games are drawn, Romania and Belgium take first and second but will both have goal difference of +1. The first tiebreaker is head to head, but as four teams are all level it's effectively initially decided by overall group difference. If both games are drawn by the same scoreline, Romania win the group on goals scored. If Belgium draw scoring one more goal (e.g. 2-2 and 1-1) then the head to head is re-run between just those two countries, meaning Belgium win the group. If Belgium draw scoring 2+ more goals (e.g. 3-3 and 1-1), Belgium win the group. So, with two draws Romania can only win the group if the draws are of the same scoreline or Romania score more goals. 

Loss Will finish bottom if Ukraine win/draw. If Belgium win, Romania finish third over Ukraine on head to head and would have to lose by 4+ goals to not be one of the best third-placed teams.

BELGIUM:

Will qualify as long as they do not lose to Ukraine by 4+ goals, if in third place.

Win Guaranteed to qualify, which will be as group winners if Romania win/draw. If Slovakia win, Belgium finish second on head to head.

Draw Guaranteed to qualify. If there is a winner between Slovakia and Romania, Belgium finish second on head to head over Romania. If both games are drawn, the scenarios in the Romania section apply.

Loss Will finish bottom if Romania win/draw. If Slovakia win, Belgium finish third over Romania on head to head and would have to lose by 4+ goals to not be one of the best third-placed teams.

SLOVAKIA:

Need a point to definitely go through.

Win Guaranteed to qualify, which will be as group winners if Belgium win/draw. If Ukraine win, Slovakia finish second on head to head.

Draw If Slovakia vs. Romania is a draw, both teams are guaranteed to go through. Slovakia will finish third regardless of the other result and four points is good enough.

Loss Will finish third only if Ukraine win, and would have to lose by 3+ goals to not be one of the best third-placed teams.

UKRAINE:

Must win to guarantee qualification. 

Win Guaranteed to qualify, which will be as group winners if Slovakia win/draw. If Romania win, Ukraine finish second on head to head.

Draw Will finish third if there is a winner in the other match, and four points would see them through. If both games are drawn, Ukraine finish bottom.

Loss Will finish third only if Romania win, and then must wait to see if three points is enough with their goal difference.

Results:

Turkey 3-1 Georgia  Portugal 2-1 Czechia Georgia 1-1 Czechia Turkey 0-3 Portugal

Remaining fixtures:

June 26 Czechia vs. Turkey Georgia vs. Portugal

PORTUGAL: 

Have qualified as group winners as they hold the head to head over Turkey.

TURKEY:

Need a point to definitely qualify.

Win/draw Will finish in second place with a win/draw against Czechia.

Loss Cannot finish in the top two with a defeat but if Georgia draw/lose, Turkey finish third and will go through as long as they do not lose by three or more goals.

If Turkey lose and Georgia win, Turkey finish bottom.

CZECHIA:

Must win, which would guarantee qualification.

Win If Czechia and Georgia win, the two teams will be level on points and second will be decided on goal difference (see Georgia section) -- though the nation who finishes third will go through with four points. 

If Czechia win and Georgia draw/lose, Czechia finish second. 

Draw/loss

Cannot qualify.

GEORGIA:

Must win, which would guarantee qualification.

Win If both Georgia and Czechia win second will come down to goal difference, but both will qualify. Georgia will have to close a goal-difference gap of one goal on Czechia to have a chance of finishing second, so must win by a greater margin. If goal difference finishes level (e.g. Georgia win 2-0 and Czechia 2-1) it will come down to Fairplay points (Georgia -5, Czechia -6). If that ends level it's European Qualifying Ranking (Czechia 17th, Georgia 34th). If Georgia win by a margin of two more goals more than Czechia (So 3-0 and 2-1), Georgia finish second. If Georgia win by the same margin as Czechia, Czechia finish second.

If Georgia win and Czechia draw/lose, Georgia finish third and four points will see them though.

Draw/loss Cannot qualify.

The four best runners-up will go through to the round of 16.

This format has been in place for two previous editions, and both times four points secured progress. At Euro 2020, Ukraine sneaked through on three points. At Euro 2016, both Northern Ireland and eventual winners Portugal made it on three points. 

We now know that three points and a goal difference of minus-2 is the minimum required to secure one of the best third-place spots. 

The third-place ranking is determined first by: 

1. Points 2. Goal difference 3. Goals scored 4. Wins 5. Lower disciplinary points 6. European qualifiers overall ranking, unless Germany are involved. If Germany are involved, random draw.

While this is the current top six, the ranking can flip around very quickly by another team leaping into third place in a group, or dropping down into it.