Kyle Filipowski Draft Prospect

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Earlier this week, the Tampa Bay Rays traded SP Aaron Civale to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for 20-year-old shortstop Gregory Barrios. Civale's spot in the rotation will be filled by SP Shane Baz.

Baz had Tommy John surgery in September 2022. He didn't pitch at all in 2023. Baz began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham in early May. Once the rehab expired, the Rays opted to leave Baz with the Bulls. He made 10 starts, throwing 39 1/3 innings with a 4.12 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. However, over his last four outings, Baz posted a 1.89 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 31 strikeouts in 19 innings.

Trading Civale was not necessarily a sign the Rays are throwing in the towel this season. They're currently sixth in the race for the three AL Wild Card spots, five games behind the Royals for the final berth. A lot must go right for the Rays to return to the playoffs, but they're within striking distance. On the other hand, the Rays may continue to move starting pitching, with Zach Eflin, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot potentially on the block.

Playoff aspirations aside, Baz will likely have his workload tempered over the second half. There are around 13 weeks left in the season. One start a week would add 65-75 innings to Baz's ledger, leaving him with 110, plus or minus a handful. This seems reasonable and sets Baz up to pitch next season with no restrictions.

The typical pattern during recovery from Tommy John surgery is velocity returns relatively quickly, but command and control may lag. When Baz embarked on his rehab, his velocity was down a couple of ticks while his command and control was poor. However, his velocity ticked up lately, and he's walked a palatable eight in 19 innings, without yielding a home run.

Currently, Baz is rostered in only 12.1% of ESPN leagues. It may swell a bit now that he's back, but he'll likely be in the streaming bucket for the second half. His Friday start in Arlington isn't an ideal spot for his 2024 MLB debut, but the Rangers offense has scored the 10th fewest runs in MLB since June 1. The catch is they don't strike out much, and since Baz likely won't pitch past the fifth inning, his fantasy production will be tempered.

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To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning. 

Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.